The Ag Survivor simulation program is a software
tool developed by the RightRisk Education Team to teach risk
concepts and management strategies to agricultural producers in an
experiential learning environment. This educational program lets
producers test firsthand whether they are better off implementing newly
learned risk management tools and strategies, like the SRMP.
With Ag Survivor, a manager can compare a current strategy for selling
grain to other standardized risk management strategies that you will
learn about in the SRMP. For example, the safety first method picks the
best average performing management system that meets a minimum standard.
A producer might eliminate from consideration any practices that have
more than a 20 percent chance of a loss. Armed with this experience,
producers can explore how they might use various risk management tools
to better achieve their goals.
Ag Survivor scenarios present complicated and, sometimes, confusing risk
management subject matters in an easily understood format by fully
engaging workshop attendees in a hands-on farm or ranch simulation. In
RightRisk workshops, participants are using Ag Survivor scenarios to test pricing or marketing
alternatives, looking at how much feed to keep in inventory, analyzing
the implications of maintaining ownership of weaned animals, and
experimenting with the purchase of insurance products.
Through friendly team competition at workshops we offer around the
West, and interaction with trained RightRisk instructors, participants
are able to experience a unique, interactive learning environment
conducive to producing long-term growth in decision making skills.
RightRisk workshop participants are put in the role of a farm or ranch
manager and asked to make decisions for the operation over a one- or
multi-year time span in a simulated environment. This creates an
energetic and interactive group learning experience with many teachable
moments. The discussions that take place within management teams as
decisions are being made add tremendous value to the workshop
experience.
Likewise, the discussions that take place between management teams as
they compare their team performances create some interesting and lively
conversations. Workshop participants are typically highly engaged and
eager to repeat the experience.
Ag Survivor scenarios use real probabilities and impacts to depict risks. With
this information, participants are making risk management decisions for
the operation as it progresses through several decision making periods.
In each period, a click of the button determines the random outcomes and
moves the management team forward in time with updated prices, yield
estimates, and inventories, among other information.
By the end of the simulation, each team will have progressed through
one or more production years with the representative farm or ranch.
Along the way, each management team will have experienced the same
prices, yields, and other factor as the other management teams, but will
have distinguished themselves by their unique set of inputted decisions.
This provides the basis for a lively, slightly competitive conversation
about who did the best.
Ag Survivor provides the platform for the participants to use several
different measures to estimate the value of their decision making
strategies. In a lot of ways, a single run through the simulation time
period represents a combination of decision making strategy and the luck
of the draw. It provides a good starting point but, with the click of a
button, the Ag Survivor software can run the model 100 times using random
draws and add considerable depth to the conversation. Output from these
repeated runs include graphical measures such as bar graphs and
statistical measures such as mean, high, low, variance and other factors
that help the user to differentiate their luck from a single run from
the overall worth of their strategy.