The Ag Survivor
simulation program is a software tool developed by the RightRisk
Education Team to teach risk concepts and management strategies to
agricultural producers in an experiential learning environment. This
educational program lets producers test firsthand whether they are
better off implementing newly learned risk management tools and
strategies, like the SRMP.
With Ag Survivor, a manager can compare a current strategy for
selling grain to other standardized risk management strategies that
you will learn about in the SRMP. For example, the safety first
method picks the best average performing management system that
meets a minimum standard. A producer might eliminate from
consideration any practices that have more than a 20 percent chance
of a loss. Armed with this experience, producers can explore how
they might use various risk management tools to better achieve their
goals.
Ag Survivor scenarios present complicated and, sometimes,
confusing risk
management subject matters in an easily understood format by fully
engaging workshop attendees in a hands-on farm or ranch simulation.
In RightRisk workshops, participants are using Ag Survivor scenarios
to test pricing or marketing alternatives, looking at how much feed
to keep in inventory, analyzing the implications of maintaining
ownership of weaned animals, and experimenting with the purchase of
insurance products.
Through friendly team competition at workshops we offer around
the West, and interaction with trained RightRisk instructors,
participants are able to experience a unique, interactive learning
environment conducive to producing long-term growth in decision
making skills. RightRisk workshop participants are put in the role
of a farm or ranch manager and asked to make decisions for the
operation over a one- or multi-year time span in a simulated
environment. This creates an energetic and interactive group
learning experience with many teachable moments. The discussions
that take place within management teams as decisions are being made
add tremendous value to the workshop experience.
Likewise, the discussions that take place between management
teams as they compare their team performances create some
interesting and lively conversations. Workshop participants are
typically highly engaged and eager to repeat the experience.
Ag Survivor scenarios use real probabilities and impacts to
depict risks. With this information, participants are making risk
management decisions for the operation as it progresses through
several decision making periods. In each period, a click of the
button determines the random outcomes and moves the management team
forward in time with updated prices, yield estimates, and
inventories, among other information.
By the end of the simulation, each team will have progressed
through one or more production years with the representative farm or
ranch. Along the way, each management team will have experienced the
same prices, yields, and other factor as the other management teams,
but will have distinguished themselves by their unique set of
inputted decisions. This provides the basis for a lively, slightly
competitive conversation about who did the best.
Ag Survivor provides the platform for the participants to use
several different measures to estimate the value of their decision
making strategies. In a lot of ways, a single run through the
simulation time period represents a combination of decision making
strategy and the luck of the draw. It provides a good starting point
but, with the click of a button, the Ag Survivor software can run
the model 100 times using random draws and add considerable depth to
the conversation. Output from these repeated runs include graphical
measures such as bar graphs and statistical measures such as mean,
high, low, variance and other factors that help the user to
differentiate their luck from a single run from the overall worth of
their strategy.